PMI

European Open: GBP/CHF Rises to 9-week High Ahead of UK Flash PMI

With PMI data released for France, Germany, eurozone, UK and US, this places GBP, EUR and USD pairs into focus for news traders.
APAC flash PMIs off to a soft start
A lift of coronavirus restrictions saw UK business confidence rise to its highest level since 2016, rising 21 percentage points to 11. Furthermore, employers confidence also rose to a near-5-year high of 29. The pound remained flat yet firm overnight, before flash PMI data today.

Flash PMI data for Europe and therefore the US are the most data points today within the calendar. Data from the APAC region came in softer than expected, with Australian manufacturing falling to 58.54 (64.4 prior) and repair right down to 56 (58 prior). This dragged the composite right down to 56.1 from 58.0. it had been an identical case for Japan’s manufacturing sector which expanded at the slower pace of 51.5 compared with 52.3 expected down from 53.

The FTSE 100 rose 0.39% yesterday to a two-day high and has recouped around half Friday’s bearish range. it’s the second strongest performer week so far at 1.03%, with DAX taking top place at 1.22%. an opportunity above 7100 also takes it back above the 10-day eMA, and we’d wish to see prices hold above the 7073.55 low to retain an intraday bullish bias.

FTSE 350: Market Internals
FTSE 350: 4064.49 (0.39%) 22 June 2021

255 (72.65%) stocks advanced and 80 (22.79%) declined
14 stocks rose to a replacement 52-week high, 2 fell to new lows
85.19% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
17.09% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
Outperformers:

  • 7.20% – Sirius land Ltd (SRET.L)
  • 6.71% – Travis Perkins PLC (TPK.L)
  • 6.17% – Beazley PLC (BEZG.L)
    Underperformers:

-3.37% – Network International Holdings PLC (NETW.L)
-3.07% – Capita PLC (CPI.L)
-2.64% – Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (HRGV.L)

Forex: Aussie trade surplus hits a record
Preliminary trade data for Australia saw exports rise 11% and take its trade surplus to a replacement record of A$13.3 billion. 42% of exports were sent China’s way, and ore accounted for 18% of exports last month. AUD/NZD pared around ¾ of yesterday’s losses after probing the weekly low. It nudged its way higher against the yen, euro, pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc . AUD/USD is currently -0.04% lower against the dollar. However, with an epidemic in Sydney behind 120 exposure venues, talk about another lockdown is ramping up with QLD following VIC’s move to shut their border with NSW.

The US dollar was the strongest major overnight, rising against all major currencies whilst CHF and NZD were the weakest. GBP/JPY is resting beneath yesterday’s high after reaching out upside target, therefore the UK’s PMI release might be a make or break for bullish momentum over the near term.

GBP/CHF has risen to the highest if its 9-week range before the ecu open, which places 1.2820 because the main focus this session. Over this era of your time , the weekly chart has mostly held above its 200-week eMA and is now trying to accelerate faraway from the 10-week eMA. So there’s a case for a bullish breakout on the upper timeframes, although whether that happens today is yet to be seen.

The four-hour chart shows a possible bearish wedge (not textbook, but its there in spirit) which might take prices back towards 1.2700 is confirmed. The weekly R1 pivot is additionally capping as resistance, so another dip lower is out of the question. But if we will see an opportunity or a hourly close above 1.2820 then it could signal a bullish breakout from its 9-week range and convey

Commodities drift higher after Powell’s testimony:
Commodities were higher overnight after Jerome Powell kept to his transitory inflation script and pledged to stay rates low.

Copper prices rose 1% overnight and are now testing the broken trendline outline in today’s Asian open report, note that the weekly pivot is around 4.85 which leaves a transparent line within the sand for bullish or bearish setups today.

Gold futures rose 0.25% although remains within yesterday’s bearish range, and silver futures are currently 0.65% higher.

Brent futures are probing yesterday’s high although we’d got to see an opportunity above 75.58 (April 2019 high) before assuming resumption of its bullish trend. Prices gave back earlier gains yesterday after OPEC+ talked about raising production.